The Market Was Slow. Your Portfolio Didn’t Have to Be.

The first half of 2026 was a genuine grind for U.S. short-term rentals — and it turned out better than it started. Here’s the national picture, and three TechTape markets that outperformed the whole way through.

The Season by the Numbers

The year started with a rougher outlook than it’s ending with. Here’s a more grounded look at where the market actually stands, based on data published before the World Cup was even underway:

⏺ Rates started weak and built through the year. ADR growth was just 0.7% YoY in January 2026, climbing to roughly 3% by spring — well before any World Cup effect could have played a role.

⏺ Supply and demand landed in near-balance. New listing growth and demand growth both came in around 2.7% for the year — a sharp change from the 20%+ supply growth recorded at the 2021–2022 peak.

⏺ Existing operators were the ones who benefited. That balance, driven mostly by mortgage rates delaying new investment, is exactly why 2026 is being called a better year to own than to buy: stronger pricing conditions for operators already in the market, not new entrants.

Bottom line: The full-year forecast is modest — 57.4% occupancy , RevPAR up just 2.9% — and getting there took a real grind through the first half of the year, before the World Cup gave a handful of host markets a summer boost. For a lot of operators, especially outside those markets, it’s been a genuinely slow year. 

Macroeconomic Drivers

This isn’t simply a story. Travelers are still traveling—but they’re becoming more selective about where, when, and how they spend.There are several forces at play:

⏺ Macro uncertainty is real. Inflation and broader economic uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict pushed mortgage rates back above 6% and delayed investment activity industry-wide.

⏺ The job market cooled into the summer. Consumer research found a smaller share of Americans feeling positive about the economy and a larger share reducing on their discretionary spend categories, including travel, heading into peak season. 

⏺ The market is becoming more selective. Higher-income travelers (ones less sensitive to price) are still traveling, while more price-sensitive travelers are shortening trips, delaying bookings, or trading down — which hits price-sensitive beach markets harder than premium mountain and drive-to destinations. 

⏺ International demand has softened. International STR demand is running 12% below prior-year levels, with Canadian demand down a steep 35% from pre-tariff (2024) levels —a real headwind for border markets and gateway cities.

⏺ Booking windows keep shrinking. July booking windows have compressed from 34 days in 2022 to 29 days in 2026. Even more telling, last-minute bookings (0-7 days out) now make up 27% of all reservations, up from 21% in 2021.

⏺ It’s uneven by market, in both directions. San Francisco (+12.1%), Anaheim (+11.0%), and Philadelphia (+10.1%) posted the strongest RevPAR growth this year, each in a market where supply tightened. The weakest performers tell the opposite story: Florida Gulf Coast markets — including Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Sarasota, and St. Petersburg — continue to add supply faster than demand, pressuring occupancy and RevPAR. Mountain and lake destinations struggled too, after a severe snow drought hit ski-season demand hard in markets like Breckenridge, CO and Big Bear, CA, though both are well positioned to rebound if snowfall returns in 2027.

That last shift matters. When guests are booking later, the opportunity to adjust your strategy gets smaller.

How Your Portfolio Stacks Up

Every property manager should be asking the same question right now: Are we underperforming the market—or is the market underperforming? The answer requires looking beyond your own occupancy and ADR. 

How are you pacing against your comp set? Where is demand strengthening or weakening? Are rate changes actually translating into revenue? And are your properties responding differently from one another?

That gap between market performance and portfolio performance is where the opportunity for Q4 sits.

Markets set expectations. They don’t have to set your results — and closing that gap for our partners is exactly what we do at TechTape.

Across our own portfolio, the pattern has been consistent: a modestly bullish default stance on pricing — capturing strong reservations further out instead of waiting and hoping. By the time a stay date got close, we were already ahead of the market, instead of joining the last-minute rate-cutting that dragged a lot of operators down.

Three non-World Cup markets in our portfolio show how that’s played out over the trailing twelve months (July 2025–July 2026):

Cape Coral, Florida

Over the trailing twelve months, Cape Coral’s overall market softened as supply grew faster than demand across the Gulf Coast: the market sits at 56% occupancy (up 6.1%), but ADR down 18.6% to $223 and RevPAR down 13.1% to $125. Our Cape Coral portfolio moved the other way: 71% occupancy (15 points above market), ADR essentially flat, and RevPAR up roughly 9% over the same stretch.

Occupancy

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): 56% (+6.1%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): 71% (+6.9 pts)

ADR

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): $223 (-18.6%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): $236 (~flat)

RevPAR

⏺ Overall Market (TTM):$125 (-13.1%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): $168 (+9.0%)

Dover, Ohio

Dover’s market cooled too: 50% occupancy (up 2.9%), but ADR down 22.5% to $254 and RevPAR down 12.7% to $128. Our Dover portfolio runs a different playbook: occupancy is lower, at 39%, but ADR is nearly 3x the market at $743, and RevPAR sits at $292 — up roughly 3% while the market fell.

Occupancy

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): 50% (+2.9%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): 39% (+2.0 pts)

ADR

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): $254 (-22.5%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): $743 (~-2%)

RevPAR

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): $128 (-12.7%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): $292 (+3.0%)

Honolulu, Hawaii

Honolulu’s market slipped too: 64% occupancy (down 1.1%), ADR down 8.8% to $288, and RevPAR down 9.9% to $172. Our Honolulu portfolio held the line: 84% occupancy (up nearly 8 points), a softer 4% ADR decline, and RevPAR at $296 — up roughly 5% even as the market fell.

Occupancy

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): 64% (-1.1%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): 84% (+7.6 pts)

ADR

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): $288 (-8.8%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): $351 (~-4%)

RevPAR

⏺ Overall Market (TTM): $172 (-9.9%)

⏺ TechTape Portfolio (TTM): $296 (+5.4%)

How to Navigate Revenue Management in a Fog

The hardest part of this stretch isn’t reading the data. It’s making decisions before the data is complete. Here are a few principles worth keeping in mind through year-end:

⏺ Don’t wait for certainty you won’t get. Waiting for next month’s numbers to confirm a trend means you’re always reacting to what already happened. Set a decision cadence—weekly, not just when performance starts to fall—and act on the signals you have.

⏺ Stop anchoring to last year. In a market this uneven, last year’s calendar isn’t always the best baseline. Look at current pace, your comp set, market demand, and what your own properties are telling you.

⏺ Get conservative on the assumptions, not the strategy. Build Q4 and 2027 plans around flatter demand and shorter booking windows. Then let stronger-than-expected performance work in your favor rather than building a plan that requires the market to outperform.

⏺ AI helps you execute faster; it doesn’t replace the read. AI and automation can help surface patterns, analyze data, and make adjustments faster. But they don’t replace the judgment required to understand what’s actually happening in your market.

The goal isn’t to react faster to every signal. It’s to know which signals matter.

Planning Ahead into 2027

The broader signal is increasingly clear: 2026 looks more like a normalization year than a downturn. Supply growth is moderating, demand remains healthy, and pricing continues to move forward—just more modestly. The market may be changing. The opportunity hasn’t disappeared. It’s becoming more specific to the operator and the market.

For the rest of 2026, focus on what you can control:

⏺ Know your pace. Compare on-the-books occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR against your comp set and last year’s pace—not just month-end performance.

⏺ Know your markets. Reforecast by destination, property type, and demand profile. Look for markets where demand, rates, or booking windows are moving differently.

⏺ Know your opportunities. Map Q4 events and shoulder-season demand, and flag properties where pricing, minimum stays, or availability could improve RevPAR.

⏺ Know your numbers. Reconcile revenue, occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, bookings, and cancellations so your forecast is built from one consistent set of numbers.

The operators who outperform in a more normalized market won’t necessarily be the ones who predict it perfectly. They’ll be the ones who can see what’s changing, understand what it means for their portfolio, and act while there’s still time to capture the opportunity.

Sources:

AirDNA — 2026 Midyear Outlook (“A Better Year to Own Than to Buy”)AirDNA — Cape Coral, FL Market Data
AirDNA — Dover, OH Market Data
AirDNA — Honolulu, HI Market Data
Key Data — “2026 Vacation Rental Industry OutlookPriceLabs — “Short-Term Rental 2026 Trends Guide for Hosts”