VRMA 26: Reality Check on AI, Margins and Direct Bookings

This month about 2,400 in the vacation rental industry packed Nashville’s Music City Center for VRMA 2026. One question hung over almost every session: what’s actually working? Here are the 5 key themes that kept coming up.

What operators kept talking about

• AI, from buzzword to “okay, now what?” Seven sessions, including a hackathon where operators built their own tools on the spot.
• Platform fees are increasing. Vrbo’s 12% commission starts October 29. Airbnb’s host-only fee reached Europe on October 13. Nobody was cheering.
• Where bookings really come from. With Booking.com and Expedia with a large presence, the OTA-versus-direct debate got lively.
• Guests booking later. Booking windows are down to about 55 days, and one in three stays books within a week of check-in.
• Keeping owners. Knowing your worth. Owner retention and M&A filled some of the busiest rooms all week.

Takeaway 1: Everyone wants AI. Few have it working.

AI sessions were standing room only. Yet when operators scored their own AI readiness on a four-stage scale, most landed at 2 out of 4. Nobody claimed a 4.

Many are waiting on their software vendors because they lack the technical chops to build it. Those who did build something worry it will walk out the door with the person who made it. And nearly everyone asked: what can I safely hand to AI, and how do I know it got it right?

Here’s the catch: AI doesn’t fix inconsistent data. It builds on it.

When your PMS, pricing tool and owner statements tell different stories, AI just adds another answer, and it can sound convincing even when the numbers underneath are wrong.

That’s why TechTape built Tidewell. It brings your tech stack into one trusted source of truth, so your decisions, and eventually your AI, run on numbers that actually agree. VRMA was our first time showing Tidewell to the industry. John gave a lot of operators a sneak peek, and their reactions told us we’re solving the right problem. Tidewell is in early access.

What you can do about it

• Score yourself honestly. Rate each area (guest messaging, operations, owner relations, finance, revenue) from 1 to 4. Pick one to move up a stage this quarter.
• Fix the data before adding AI. Otherwise AI repeats the mismatch, just faster.
• Set the rules before handing over control. Decide what AI handles alone and what needs a human sign-off, and name one person who owns those rules.

Takeaway 2: Margins are tight. Every number has to earn its keep.

Margin pressure came up everywhere. VRMA’s Jodi Refosco said costs are rising, revenue is contracting, and mid-sized operators feel it most. Add 24/7 operations and hard-to-keep staff, and every dollar matters.

Then add the new platform fees. Operators heard plenty of pitches about AI helping a smaller team do more. Fair enough. But efficiency won’t protect your margins if you don’t know where your money goes.

More bookings don’t automatically mean more profit.

The real question isn’t how much revenue you bring in. It’s how much you keep, and whether the effort to earn it is worth it. Gross revenue tells you what came in. Net revenue tells you what you kept.

That’s where Tidewell comes in. Tidewell can break down your monthly total into accommodation revenue, cleaning, pet and other fees, taxes, discounts and adjustments. Toggle any category on or off to see what’s driving the total and what’s actually yours to keep.

Tidewell’s Revenue tile: toggle each category on or off to see what drives your total.

What you can do about it

• Know your net, by channel. Work out what a booking really nets after commissions, payment fees, cleaning and labor.
• Re-run the math before October 29. Check recent Vrbo bookings under the new commission and adjust rates, minimum stays or channel mix.
• Find the hours, not just the dollars. The tasks your team repeats every week are your first automation candidates, freeing your best people for guests and owners.
• Check your owner statements. If they take weeks to close or need manual fixes, margin is leaking through your back office.

Takeaway 3: OTAs aren’t your demand. They’re a channel.

It was one of the liveliest debates of the week. Booking.com and Expedia shared their 2027 distribution bets on Monday’s panel, Booking.com CEO Glenn Fogel took the main stage Tuesday, and one session argued that OTAs are a channel, not the source of your demand.

John’s panel, “Direct Bookings Are Up. So Why Aren’t Yours?“, dug into why direct is growing across the industry and what separates the operators actually capturing it.

John’s take: your direct booking site is a channel too. The operators with the highest direct booking share treat it like one, with real marketing spend and effort, the same way the OTAs do. A website you put up and hope for the best is not a direct booking strategy.

An OTA booking tells you where a reservation happened, not what convinced the guest to book. OTAs aren’t going anywhere, and they shouldn’t. But you need to know which channels introduce guests, which convert them, and which simply take the booking (and a fee). Without that, it’s hard to know where to invest or whether your direct strategy is working.

What you can do about it

• Track where guests first found you. Ask on every direct booking and flag repeat guests.
• Give past guests a reason to come back directly. A direct-booking perk can turn one OTA stay into a lasting relationship.
• Understand how AI search sees you. Ask ChatGPT or Google’s AI for stays in your market. If you don’t show up, tighten the property details on your own site.
• Weigh cost against value. Compare each channel’s cost per booking with the repeat and direct bookings it drives. The priciest channel isn’t always the worst.

Full disclosure: we’re biased about VRMA

The best moments in Nashville happened off stage, in 1:1s where operators compared notes and admitted where they’re behind. That kind of honesty needs a community built on trust, and that’s VRMA. It also advocates for operators with lawmakers, backs industry research and runs education all year.

Our CEO, John, serves on VRMA’s Board, so take this with a grain of salt. We’d say it anyway. Not a member yet? Join at vrma.org.

See you next year

Thanks to the VRMA team, the planning committee and every operator who made time for John. Nashville made one thing clear: operators are ready for AI that works for them, and it starts with clean data.